Skies expected to bring rain, snow during holiday week, forecasters say
By Ted Morris, Sierra Vista Herald/Review
SIERRA VISTA — Get your coats, caps and gloves ready. Early winter storms are moving into the area, promising precipitation today and into the Thanksgiving weekend.
“Due to the tropical nature of this system … the snow level will be very high,” a National Weather Service stated in a hazardous-weather outlook for Southeast Arizona, issued Tuesday afternoon.
The defined area included Cochise and Santa Cruz counties.
“The snow level (today) will start above the peaks and then fall to around 7,500 feet on Thursday. The best time frame for accumulating snow will be Wednesday evening into Thursday. Total snowfall amounts for the event will be in the 3 to 9 inch range with the highest totals above 8,000 feet,” the weather service said in its statement.
The National Weather Service report also advised the system would bring much cooler temperatures into the region.
Local meteorologists are watching the system, which is moving eastward to Arizona from the Southern California/Baja coast.
“It’s kind of a good winter storm, bringing primarily rain in Sierra Vista,” said Steve Erickson, weather station manager for Libby Army Airfield on Fort Huachuca. He is one of four forecasters at the station, which also handles weather services for Sierra Vista Municipal Airport and the overall fort.
“Winter’s on its way,” said Karen Malis-Clark with the U.S. Forest Service’s Coconino and Kaibab national forests in northern Arizona.
The U.S. Forest Service warned that winter conditions might warrant travel restrictions on forest roads, even for all-terrain vehicles.
As of Tuesday, local supervisors with the Coronado National Forest had not issued any warnings. But they are known to keep an eye on popular drives such as the guardrail-less road to the 9,250-foot summit of Carr Peak and will close such roads if conditions warrant, depending on hour-to-hour evaluations.
Erickson said he hopes the storm will provide Sierra Vista’s November average precipitation. As usual, most of the annual precipitation came during the monsoon. The fort has recorded 15.25 inches from Jan. 1 to Oct. 31.
According to AccuWeather Inc., whose precipitation data from the Sierra Vista Fire Department’s Station One are reported daily on Page A6 of the Herald/Review, 8.45 inches have fallen year to date, compared with a normal year-to-date rainfall of 13.38 inches.
The Huachuca Mountains usually receive the most precipitation in this area, and the valleys of Cochise County get more rain than Tucson, which gets more than Phoenix.
Erickson, who looks at reports filed on rainlog.org, noted that some people in Hereford have reported receiving as much as 21 inches of rain so far this year.
Erickson said his staff monitors two rain gauges: one on Libby, near the station, and a second one at Sierra Vista Muncipal Airport. During this year’s monsoon, those gauges collected 13.88 and 11.92 inches, respectively.
The National Weather Service decided this year that the Arizona monsoon will now be defined as starting on June 15 and ending Sept. 30.
Previously, the monsoon’s arrival was marked by three consecutive days of the dew point averaging 54 degrees Fahrenheit in Tucson and 55 degrees in Phoenix.
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