Our nonsoon

I went on a hike with four other people from the hiking club yesterday, up in our Huachuca mountains. Despite the 8000'+ elevation we could feel the heat, and it kicked all our butts in the end, even the dogs' butts.

The lack of rain was very obvious in the lower elevations, where strands of gambel oak are dying off.

_____

The annual downpours haven't arrived, and experts blame El Niño.
By Bill Hess and Dana ColeHerald/Review

Published: Sunday, August 9, 2009 1:35 AM MST

Maybe you’ve heard the cliché: “Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it.”In southern Arizona, the weather issue is more local.It’s about the monsoon — or the lack of it.

And, again, no one can doing anything about that.Well, not really.Mother Nature can, and she is doing so, by sending the boy — El Niño — to replace the girl — La Niña — in the Pacific Ocean.

The vast Pacific does much to dictate weather patterns around the world, a federal meteorologist said.When the boy is in the Pacific, there is a “warming trend of seawater” that affects the monsoon, Ken Drozd said.

Working for the National Weather Service in Tucson, Drozd said once El Niño starts in the far western waters of the Pacific along the equator, it brings a dry spell as the summer rains diminish in southern Arizona.

In June, earlier-than-expected rains occurred before La Niña was forced out of the Pacific Ocean region, he said.“Last month was a struggle when it came to the monsoon,” Drozd said of July, noting that El Niño grew in strength. Usually, the local monsoon begins around July 4. Instead, a different high-pressure system formed over Arizona, keeping the flow of rain from coming into the state from the southeast, its normal route in a good summer monsoon, he said.

The sea current changed, affecting the atmospheric current.And while people think of weather systems as separate regions, the entire globe is connected, and the main area driving weather is the Pacific Ocean, Drozd said.What happens in the Pacific creates either a strong or weak hurricane season in the Atlantic, and because of the girl-to-boy phenomenon, there has been a reduction in the number of hurricanes expected to hit the eastern United States this year, Drozd said.

While the Southwest is in a drought, one that is expected to continue through the summer because of scarce rainfall by a weak monsoon, “there is a coming upside,” Drozd said.

Later in the fall and through the winter, “there is a better chance for more rain than in the past years,” he said.The El Niño system creates the ability to bring in precipitation from the north, the federal meteorologist said.

During the last three years when the girl was in charge of the Pacific, the summer rains were better. But on the other hand, the winter rains were lighter, he said. Now, the reverse will be true, Drozd added.

Since June 15, the Sierra Vista area has received 3.25 inches of rain, which is almost three quarters of an inch less than normal, he said. Other areas in Cochise County have received their normal or higher amounts since June 15. However, it appears the cumulative amounts for southern Arizona when the monsoon traditionally ends in September will put everyone at a lower-than-normal total, Drozd said.

Noting that rain is important for ranchers and others involved agricultural economies, he said the immediate outlook is not good, but it will become better during the winter rainy season.“Dry weather is expected to continue for a while, and then it will become wetter later this year,” Drozd said. Of course, that all depends on whether Mother Nature can keep her unruly children — El Niño and La Niña — in check. But, then who knows whether even she can truly do anything about the weather.

http://www.svherald.com/articles/2009/08/09/news/doc4a7e7f88ee713783380716.txt

.